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A Winning Strategy For “Win-Back” Campaigns

This Month In Retail Banking

Balance runoff is picking up speed in 2023. With interest rates from some direct banks topping the tantalizing 4% mark on a savings accountsa level not seen since 2007 depositors are waking up and moving their non-operating cash to higher-yielding alternatives. The pressure to replace those deposits puts many banks in a classic prisoner’s dilemma: attract more deposits with headline offers, but if all the banks do this, deposit runoff will accelerate, and the industry’s profitability will take a big hit. 

Against this backdrop, personalized customer marketing programs – from win-back offers to balance augmentation help banks to protect and defend their existing book without heating up the whole thing. For example, a bank with an always-on marketing effort that discretely targets lost balances focusing only on those depositors with stickier money and leverages personalization engines to optimize the message and offer will reduce its dependency on rate campaigns that broadly reprice their deposit book. Similarly, by targeting just those customers who are more likely to respond to rate and cash offers, that same bank can grow depositor balances meaningfully without repricing the whole book or going out to the deposit market

Banks that have invested in marketing personalization are finding that in the eight or ten weeks it normally takes to develop a single marketing campaign, they can launch always-on, targeted win-back and balance augmentation programs that economically and efficiently address balance decay

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Nowhere is the mortgage shakeout more apparent than in the wave of mergers and acquisitions that have washed across the industry ever since interest rates started to rise. And that wave is occurring even though credit trends aren’t deteriorating significantly. Courageous buyers view the upheaval as an opportunity to enter new markets and then cut costs from overlapping operations. As these are early days, it is unclear whether these classic strategies to grab market share will ultimately succeed. If economic conditions deteriorate and credit trends weaken, some lenders may experience buyer’s remorse. What’s clear is that the industry’s trends aren’t showing any signs of recovery, with volume down 53.3% year over year. Market trends are showing lower weighted average FICOs (dropping from 760 to 745), higher LTVs (increasing from 72% to 81%). Both metrics are associated with a move away from the refinance boom and toward a stronger purchase market. This means that buyers can’t rely on new geographies to guide them to better times. Instead, lenders will need to keep charging ahead with efforts to optimize margins by using granular pricing strategies. They also must have a clear retention strategy for their mortgage servicing portfolio because recapture will represent a significant opportunity when rates start to come back down.

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