A cursory look at upcoming CD maturities might reveal a sharp decline in the second half of the year. But the increasing portfolio mix of shorter-term CDs, and their resulting multiple maturity events, mask the real size of the CD book that will need to be managed in the next 12 months. Through the Retail Deposit Analyzer, Curinos projects the volume will be about $1.9T industrywide, with many maturities frontloaded in the next few months (see chart).
Most of these maturities will be shorter term—less than 12 months—which have become increasingly popular at banks that have been able to offer more competitive shorter-term CD rates. The prevalence of short-term CDs has created more front-loaded maturity events compared with 12-month and longer CDs, but they have also created multiple-maturity events in the next 12 months during which the short-term CDs will mature again, assuming they were retained at their first maturity.
As a result, a view of solely upcoming CD maturities can often be misleading and underestimate the volume of CDs to mature in a year, as it masks the short-term CDs that will mature again in the latter half of the year. To create our projections, Curinos considered the mix of short-term CDs and forecasted their re-maturing likelihood for the second renewal, taking into account current retention rates and incoming monthly acquisition, to generate a full view of CDs that will mature.
This representation shows the likely “real” size of the CD book that will need to be managed by pricing teams at banks each month. And with an expected high volume of upcoming maturities, it continues to underscore the importance of careful CD pricing design in 2025 to continue to maintain desired retention levels that are increasingly shorter-term and frequently maturing.
% of CD Balances Maturing in Next 12 Months |
Industry Mar ‘25 – Feb ‘26
Source: Curinos Optimizer, SNL Data | Note(s): Simple averages displayed. Forecasted maturities represent 1st maturities. Acquisition is included in $1.9T industry projection.
