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Profitable Commercial Growth Can Hinge On The Right Client Mix

Many commercial-banking relationships that had been profitable are now under water, driven by sustained higher rate environment that has changed client behavior toward deposits and put continuing pressure on spreads. What to do?  

Banks should start by optimizing their existing portfolio. That means identifying underpenetrated client segments where there are opportunities for cross-sell, and reviewing deposit and TM fee pricing to better align with the value exchange that the market and the relationship may demand.   

But to achieve profitable balance sheet growth that can be sustained, banks need to have the right mix of clients. Lending segments display structural differences in deposit and fee potential – C&I clients, for example, can produce 3.5x more deposit balances and 3.7x more fee income than CRE clients. And a client’s industry, whether cash-rich or lending-intensive, can reveal material differences in loan-to-deposits ratios (see chart). That’s according to data from Curinos’ Commercial Analyzer and BusinessIQ. 

As a result, banks should review their go-to-market strategy, and adjust it if needed, based on industry sector, sales size and lending segmentations, while calibrating the strategy to the bank’s product capabilities. And equally importantly, banks should review  banker goals and incentives to drive behavioral changes needed to implement the strategy. 

There are material differences in deposit and fee potential
by type of business and by industry.​

Deposit and Fee Potential by Lending Type​
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio Variance by Industry​

Source(s): Curinos Commercial Analyzer, Curinos BusinessIQ
Note(s): C&I / CRE clients defined as clients with at least 50% of their lending in the respective products
​

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Nowhere is the mortgage shakeout more apparent than in the wave of mergers and acquisitions that have washed across the industry ever since interest rates started to rise. And that wave is occurring even though credit trends aren’t deteriorating significantly. Courageous buyers view the upheaval as an opportunity to enter new markets and then cut costs from overlapping operations. As these are early days, it is unclear whether these classic strategies to grab market share will ultimately succeed. If economic conditions deteriorate and credit trends weaken, some lenders may experience buyer’s remorse. What’s clear is that the industry’s trends aren’t showing any signs of recovery, with volume down 53.3% year over year. Market trends are showing lower weighted average FICOs (dropping from 760 to 745), higher LTVs (increasing from 72% to 81%). Both metrics are associated with a move away from the refinance boom and toward a stronger purchase market. This means that buyers can’t rely on new geographies to guide them to better times. Instead, lenders will need to keep charging ahead with efforts to optimize margins by using granular pricing strategies. They also must have a clear retention strategy for their mortgage servicing portfolio because recapture will represent a significant opportunity when rates start to come back down.

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