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Retail Deposits: Stable, But More Competition Possible

This Month in Retail Banking

Amid a month of market disruption during which wealth and commercial deposits saw material outflows post-Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), retail deposits remained remarkably stable and largely on a consistent trajectory. In the two weeks immediately following SVB’s failure, wealth deposits declined nearly 3% and commercial deposits declined nearly 2% above YTD trajectory while consumer deposits remained flat overall and within 0.5% of their YTD trajectory. Digging deeper, we see that customers with high balances – above the $250k insurance limit – saw modestly higher outflows, but these were offset by inflows among smaller-dollar deposits, as consumers in some cases diversified among banks. 

From the perspective of consumer deposits, four factors over the last month characterized winners: 

Strong Primary Checking

Checking-anchored relationships continued to be more stable than single-service customers at all balance tiers.

“Perceived Stability”

Longstanding and high-density presence in a local market drove customer perceptions of bank stability.

Higher Rates

For customers diversifying across banks and moving large – but insured – chunks of deposits, return mattered in many cases.

Marketing Speed and Flexibility

Getting the right messages and offers to customers quickly was more likely to make the three other success factors possible.

As we look ahead, the value of retail deposits – particularly those anchored by a checking relationship – has never been higher. That value, however, may very well come with a cost in the form of increased competition, as more banks look to defend and grow in a market where there are many attackers. Standing out and winning fair share in an expenseconstrained environment will be more important than ever. 

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Nowhere is the mortgage shakeout more apparent than in the wave of mergers and acquisitions that have washed across the industry ever since interest rates started to rise. And that wave is occurring even though credit trends aren’t deteriorating significantly. Courageous buyers view the upheaval as an opportunity to enter new markets and then cut costs from overlapping operations. As these are early days, it is unclear whether these classic strategies to grab market share will ultimately succeed. If economic conditions deteriorate and credit trends weaken, some lenders may experience buyer’s remorse. What’s clear is that the industry’s trends aren’t showing any signs of recovery, with volume down 53.3% year over year. Market trends are showing lower weighted average FICOs (dropping from 760 to 745), higher LTVs (increasing from 72% to 81%). Both metrics are associated with a move away from the refinance boom and toward a stronger purchase market. This means that buyers can’t rely on new geographies to guide them to better times. Instead, lenders will need to keep charging ahead with efforts to optimize margins by using granular pricing strategies. They also must have a clear retention strategy for their mortgage servicing portfolio because recapture will represent a significant opportunity when rates start to come back down.

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