This Month in Retail Banking
Deposit shifts have continued as a result of rising rates and the failures of Silicon Valley, Signature and First Republic. That’s according to the May edition of the Curinos Consumer Deposit Analyzer. Balances over $250k have declined the fastest, though material uninsured balances remain in both checking and savings. Checking balances in particular remain at risk as customers look for yield.
In addition, the gap in growth of savings and CDs has widened dramatically between the fastest growing banks, those with 8% growth since January 2022, and the slowest growing banks, those with 9% runoff over the same time period. That gap has now increased to 17% over the last 15 months. (See Figure 1.)
Figure 1: Deposit Balance Growth | CD & Savings | Indexed To Jan ’22
Quartiled by End Balance Growth from Jan ‘22 to Mar ‘23
The divergence has increasingly been driven by more aggressive rate-setting at the higher end. Of the 1,325 banks tracked by Curinos, 16% are offering a rate of at least 3.00% on savings, even as fully 50% of banks do not offer a rate above 1.00%. On the opposite end, 20% of banks are not offering a rate above 25bp and are thereby risking increasing runoff. (See Figure 2.)
Figure 2: Distribution Of Savings Acquisition Rates | May ‘22 – May ’23
% of Branch banks offering a Savings/MMDA product of at least the following rates