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Banks Raise Rates In Effort To Reduce Churn

This Month in Retail Banking

The Fed slowed its pace of rate increases in December, but banks are charging ahead with higher rates. 

The latest issue of the Curinos CDA Consumer Executive Summary found that banks are increasingly trying to slow runoff from rate-seeking customers by raising rates of their own. 

Posted rates are notably higher, with 19% of banks now posting a savings/MMDA rate above 2.00% compared with 3% in September. (See Figure 1.) 

Figure 1:
Distribution of Savings Acquisition Rates | Jan ‘22 – Jan ’23*

% of branch banks offering a savings/MMA product of at least the following rates​

Source: Curinos Standard Rate Data, includes 1,349 banks as of Jan 4, ’23*. Excludes online banks.​

In addition, 46% of banks are offering a CD rate above 3.00% and 18% are offering more than 4.00%. (See Figure 2.) 

Figure 2:
Distribution of CD Acquisition Rates | Jan ‘22 – Jan ’23*​

% of banks offering a <24 month CD of at least the following rates​

Source: Curinos Standard Rate Data, includes 1,349 banks as of Jan 4, ’23*​

Despite the higher rates, savings runoff is continuing. It appears, though, that the market is increasingly bifurcating between lower runoff (averaging 1-2%) and higher runoff (averaging 10-13%).  Rate-based churn remains concentrated in higher-balance tiers, with switch to CDs disproportionately coming from balances in excess of $100,000. 

Internet banks continue to lead the market, with the average of the top 10 savings rates peaking at 3.69% and one-year CDs reaching 4.38%. 

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Nowhere is the mortgage shakeout more apparent than in the wave of mergers and acquisitions that have washed across the industry ever since interest rates started to rise. And that wave is occurring even though credit trends aren’t deteriorating significantly. Courageous buyers view the upheaval as an opportunity to enter new markets and then cut costs from overlapping operations. As these are early days, it is unclear whether these classic strategies to grab market share will ultimately succeed. If economic conditions deteriorate and credit trends weaken, some lenders may experience buyer’s remorse. What’s clear is that the industry’s trends aren’t showing any signs of recovery, with volume down 53.3% year over year. Market trends are showing lower weighted average FICOs (dropping from 760 to 745), higher LTVs (increasing from 72% to 81%). Both metrics are associated with a move away from the refinance boom and toward a stronger purchase market. This means that buyers can’t rely on new geographies to guide them to better times. Instead, lenders will need to keep charging ahead with efforts to optimize margins by using granular pricing strategies. They also must have a clear retention strategy for their mortgage servicing portfolio because recapture will represent a significant opportunity when rates start to come back down.

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