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Home Equity’s Trend Toward Digital Will Only Get Stronger

Until recently, most of an FI’s home-lending volume originated in branches, and home equity was no exception.  

That’s changed at least in part due to the pandemic, when branches closed or restricted their operating hours – any discomfort borrowers and lenders may have had with remote interaction and digital delivery was put aside through necessity.  

The trend has continued as a result of digital’s growing more sophisticated and its embrace by a younger generation of home buyers. Fully online applications for home-equity products now represent close to a quarter of all volume (see chart), nearly triple what it was pre-pandemic. Over the same period, the branch’s share of home-equity volume has plummeted from roughly 75% before the pandemic to less than half now, and indications are the trend will only accelerate.  

The clear takeaway for traditional lenders is that they will have to take a page from the alternative providers whose entire business models are based on remote and digital delivery – the alternative is surrendering an increasing share of that business.   

Booked Home Equity Unit Distribution By Subchannel​

Home equity volume through branches keeps shrinking. ​

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Nowhere is the mortgage shakeout more apparent than in the wave of mergers and acquisitions that have washed across the industry ever since interest rates started to rise. And that wave is occurring even though credit trends aren’t deteriorating significantly. Courageous buyers view the upheaval as an opportunity to enter new markets and then cut costs from overlapping operations. As these are early days, it is unclear whether these classic strategies to grab market share will ultimately succeed. If economic conditions deteriorate and credit trends weaken, some lenders may experience buyer’s remorse. What’s clear is that the industry’s trends aren’t showing any signs of recovery, with volume down 53.3% year over year. Market trends are showing lower weighted average FICOs (dropping from 760 to 745), higher LTVs (increasing from 72% to 81%). Both metrics are associated with a move away from the refinance boom and toward a stronger purchase market. This means that buyers can’t rely on new geographies to guide them to better times. Instead, lenders will need to keep charging ahead with efforts to optimize margins by using granular pricing strategies. They also must have a clear retention strategy for their mortgage servicing portfolio because recapture will represent a significant opportunity when rates start to come back down.

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