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Q4 Mortgage Volume: Weak Overall, Worse For Banks And CUs

Data across Curinos’ retail consortium reveal that independent mortgage banks outperformed depository institutions amid a broader contracting market in the latest quarter.

Average mortgage volume across the market in Q4 2023 was down 25% from their levels in the third quarter.  IMBs were down 23%, while banks and credit unions saw a 28% drop Q/Q (see chart). This five percentage point gap was largely a result of stronger appetite for loans held for sale following a decline in rates from their October highs – this decline stimulated conforming and government offerings and constrained non-agency demand. 

Balance sheet lending continued to be less of the total mortgage volume. This decline may be a response to proposed changes to capital requirements that disproportionately impact the competitive advantage held by banks and credit unions.  

Quarterly Retail Volume Change by Institution Type | All Products | Funded | Q423 vs. Q323​

A decline in balance sheet lending, prompted in part by changes to capital requirements, and a stronger appetite for loans held for sale help explain the gap in lending volume between IMBs and depositories

Source: Curinos LendersBenchmark Analyzer

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Nowhere is the mortgage shakeout more apparent than in the wave of mergers and acquisitions that have washed across the industry ever since interest rates started to rise. And that wave is occurring even though credit trends aren’t deteriorating significantly. Courageous buyers view the upheaval as an opportunity to enter new markets and then cut costs from overlapping operations. As these are early days, it is unclear whether these classic strategies to grab market share will ultimately succeed. If economic conditions deteriorate and credit trends weaken, some lenders may experience buyer’s remorse. What’s clear is that the industry’s trends aren’t showing any signs of recovery, with volume down 53.3% year over year. Market trends are showing lower weighted average FICOs (dropping from 760 to 745), higher LTVs (increasing from 72% to 81%). Both metrics are associated with a move away from the refinance boom and toward a stronger purchase market. This means that buyers can’t rely on new geographies to guide them to better times. Instead, lenders will need to keep charging ahead with efforts to optimize margins by using granular pricing strategies. They also must have a clear retention strategy for their mortgage servicing portfolio because recapture will represent a significant opportunity when rates start to come back down.

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Need to contact a specific team?

Sales Inquiries:
Sales@curinos.com

Accounts Payable Inquiries:
CurinosAP@curinos.com

Media Inquiries:
Curinos@cognitomedia.com

Need to contact a specific team?

Sales Inquiries:
Sales@curinos.com

Accounts Payable Inquiries:
CurinosAP@curinos.com

Media Inquiries:
Curinos@cognitomedia.com

Need to contact a specific team?

Sales Inquiries:
Sales@curinos.com

Accounts Payable Inquiries:
CurinosAP@curinos.com

Media Inquiries:
Curinos@cognitomedia.com

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