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Price Is Driving Changing Dynamics In Portfolio Lending

Mortgage lenders generally seek to make as many loans as they can profitably sell into the secondary market, but for the loans banks and credit unions choose to retain in portfolio, Curinos is seeing several trends:  

  1. Over the past year, rates for portfolio loans have increased 75 basis points more than rates on conforming loans. This shows that banking institutions are demanding yields on their investments that are greater than the general rise in interest rates. 
  2. The loan mix has shifted markedly – adjustable-rate mortgages now comprise the clear majority of portfolio lending (see chart). But, somewhat surprisingly, we haven’t seen a tightening of credit standards.
  3. Given the shifting appetite for retaining loans in portfolio, we’ve heard recently that lenders are working harder than ever to make sure that their sales teams don’t need to rely on them to remain productive.  

Conclusion: Banks and credit unions are using price as the primary means to control the types of mortgage loans they originate and the volume placed on the balance sheet while leaning into hiring salespeople who can originate loans consistent  with their evolving priorities. 

Figure: Non-Conforming Volume And Rate Drift – Purchase, Funded

In the non-conforming space, ARMs continue to have staying power,
accounting for more than half of all production.​

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Nowhere is the mortgage shakeout more apparent than in the wave of mergers and acquisitions that have washed across the industry ever since interest rates started to rise. And that wave is occurring even though credit trends aren’t deteriorating significantly. Courageous buyers view the upheaval as an opportunity to enter new markets and then cut costs from overlapping operations. As these are early days, it is unclear whether these classic strategies to grab market share will ultimately succeed. If economic conditions deteriorate and credit trends weaken, some lenders may experience buyer’s remorse. What’s clear is that the industry’s trends aren’t showing any signs of recovery, with volume down 53.3% year over year. Market trends are showing lower weighted average FICOs (dropping from 760 to 745), higher LTVs (increasing from 72% to 81%). Both metrics are associated with a move away from the refinance boom and toward a stronger purchase market. This means that buyers can’t rely on new geographies to guide them to better times. Instead, lenders will need to keep charging ahead with efforts to optimize margins by using granular pricing strategies. They also must have a clear retention strategy for their mortgage servicing portfolio because recapture will represent a significant opportunity when rates start to come back down.

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CurinosAP@curinos.com

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