Curinos now forecasts a robust 14–17% increase in home equity originations for 2025 compared with 2024, fueled in part by an exceptional first semester, which saw ~18% annualized growth. The updated outlook, based on Curinos’ proprietary market data, reflects steady economic conditions and healthy borrower sentiment (see table).
Stable Economy Forecast
Forecast is based upon US National HELOC & HELoan originations
The momentum is being driven by two factors: homeowners tapping into historically high levels of home equity accumulated during the pandemic’s surge in housing values; and ongoing benefits from rate relief initiated by the Fed in late 2024. With mortgage rates likely to remain above 6% for the foreseeable future, borrowers are increasingly turning to home equity products to finance renovations, consolidate higher-interest debt and fund other large expenses. Stable employment trends are bolstering consumer confidence that is further driving borrowing activity.
Looking ahead, Curinos projects growth will continue into 2026, albeit at a slower pace, with originations expected to rise 2–5% year over year. That’s assuming the economy maintains its current stability, with minimal volatility.
Even amid these positive indicators, Curinos warns that several risks could temper results. Geopolitical developments such as potential new tariffs could trigger inflationary pressures, straining household budgets and weakening consumer confidence. Additionally, any sustained increase in interest rates could further negatively affect housing affordability, reducing the number of qualified home equity borrowers.
While Curinos has a strong track record of reliable home equity forecasting, moderate to severe shifts in inflation and consumer sentiment could have a sizeable impact on consumer demand that could, in turn, weaken home equity originations.
