This is the first in a series of reports on the current state of consumer banking and how decision intelligence is quickly and dramatically altering the industry as we enter the first full year of AI-native banking.
Flat growth. It’s an oxymoron that’s exciting to no one. Yet it’s where most regional banks find their consumer franchises. Population growth is about one percent. The largest national banks continue to leverage massive scale in physical networks, AI and brand awareness to dominate the mass affluent market. And fintechs and non-traditional banks capitalize on technological agility, superb digital experience and regulatory and financial arbitrage to rapidly acquire mass market customers. That’s left the average regional bank with net checking customer growth of less than one percent this past year (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Net Checking Account Growth (Regional & Super Regional)
Apr. ’24 – Mar. ’25 | Apr. ’25 – Sep. ’25
As we enter the first AI-native year in banking, the opportunity is prime—and we would argue imperative for most—to both revisit customer strategies and invest in the capabilities required to successfully execute those strategies. To do so will demand intentionality around target customers and alignment of treatments to acquire, grow and retain relationships within those targeted segments. Here’s why more of the same simply won’t work:
Reason #1: The Landscape is Shifting From the Supply Side
The year 2026 will see three contours of transformation in the consumer landscape. First, the largest national banks will continue to expand. They’ll push into new markets with network expansion, and they’ll take a renewed look at the mass market thanks to a more accommodating regulatory environment that has enabled profitable growth in that segment. Bank of America, for example, is opening 165 new financial centers, and super-regionals are getting in on the action, as evidenced by PNC’s investment of $1 billion to open 100 new branches.
Second, fintechs that have recently dominated the mass market—Cash App and Chime, to name but two—are attracting modestly larger accounts as charter application announcements continue to pile in. Notably, Mercury, which is best known for its highly successful small business platform, recently announced in rapid succession the launch of its consumer product and its OCC charter application.
Third, M&A is not only shifting the competitive balance within markets but also potentially putting vast numbers of customer relationships in play. That’s because, on average, 11% of retail customers leave acquired franchises between legal day one and three months post conversion (Figure 2).
Figure 2: M&A Benchmark Consumer Balance Attrition
Quartiles, LD1 To 3 Months Post-conversion
Source: Curinos Analysis, Curinos Customer Impact of Bank M&A Study, Curinos Comparative Deposit Analytics
Reason #2: The Landscape is Shifting From the Demand Side
Customer attitudes toward who’s considered a primary bank have shifted dramatically. In the mass market, which accounts for the vast majority of relationships, half of all bank shoppers have four or more. That’s up from a mere seven percent in 2019. Those relationships, moreover, span both traditional banks and fintech wallets, and half of all customers and 70% of churning customers are willing to have their primary relationship with a bank without branches. In the more affluent segments, customers crave advice, but rather than receiving it directly from their bank, they’re aggregating it from multiple sources.
Given these behavioral shifts, one shouldn’t expect that the approaches of the past five years will work going forward. And to make matters more complicated, winning the relationship in an age of consumer wallet fragmentation means that nurturing and activation take on far greater importance than they once did.
Reason #3: Traditional Strategies aren’t Working
Big bank products with small bank service. Some version of this strategy is what most regional bank franchises assert to win with the mass affluent. The problem is that it’s largely not working. Although the majority of the regional banks Curinos tracks assert a mass affluent or premier strategy, either publicly or privately, national banks command about a 60% share of the mass affluent customer acquisition. And despite the efforts of banks to provide personalized service, only one in four of their customers use their digital advice tools, and only one in five affluent customers feel that their bank provides personalized interactions with a banker who knows them.
But there is a Path Forward: Decision Intelligence
Against this sobering backdrop, it seems highly unlikely that more of the same is what’s needed for traditional regional banks to counter these trends and deliver breakout primacy growth with consumers. Regional banks are in a scale race they can’t win against the nationals. And they’re in a digital product and experience race that will be hard to win against the expanding number of fintechs and non-traditional banks pushing up-market into the affluent segment.
As the path to victory, that leaves delivering on the proposition of premier service and advice. But, as said, how it’s being delivered today isn’t working. So what’s needed? We maintain that it lies within power of decision intelligence—equipping their teams to deliver the truly personalized, advice-based service they aspire to offer while achieving their targeted levels of return.
For the most innovative banks, 2026 will be the year that AI moves from the back office to the customer relationship. After years of preparation, the data, tools and guardrails have all aligned. Deep AI-learning-enabled intelligence will make possible personalization at scale. It will allow bankers to position the right solutions to the right customers at the right moment to address their financial needs. Harnessing this potential will require significant alignment internally, and for most, externally. The largest banks already have multi-billion-dollar AI and emerging-technology budgets that is allowing significant in-house development and innovation. For everyone else, moving at pace and scale will require partnerships.
In addition to tuning service delivery to the affluent segment, another exciting application for decision intelligence is targeted deepening in the mass market. Recent Curinos research has illustrated the power of growing with the mass market consumer versus simply banking the average mass affluent customer. After five years, the average mass affluent relationship has eroded by more than 30%. At the same time, the top quintile of mass market relationships has grown more than four-fold, which significantly closes the profitability gap between the segments (Figure 3). While most regional banks struggle to win at scale in the mass market, integrating decision intelligence into relationship deepening will enable them to win with precision.
Figure 3: Average Customer Balance Change
Over Time, by Segment
Source(s): Curinos Deposit Analyzer; Curinos Distribution Analyzer; Curinos Analysis
Note(s): 1. Customer base established as those who are with the bank at three months on book (does not account for attrition in first three months) 2. Average balance indexed to customer balances at three months on book
Based on consumer customers who entered through checking | Mass Market defined as <$10K deposit balances at M3, Mass Affluent >$10K deposit balances at M3 | Proforma view assumes 3MOB starting dep. balance of $10K (MA) and $1K (MM)
The Future Has Arrived
The market for primary customer relationships is getting more competitive and dynamic. Traditional regional banks are at a scale disadvantage relative to both national banks and fintechs. But the first AI native year in banking represents a sea change, and change creates opportunity. To capitalize, and to reverse the trend of share loss, regional banks will need to embrace the potential of decision intelligence and leverage it to achieve distinctive levels of personalization in the service and advice-delivery model.
