Curinos is projecting a 6-10% increase in home equity originations this year compared with 2024, driven largely by an impressive 16% year-over-year growth rate in Q1. That’s based on our proprietary data, which reflect the industry’s cautious optimism and indicate a lessening of economic volatility as the year progresses.
The surge in activity is being fueled by homeowners leveraging record levels of home equity built during the pandemic’s boom in housing values and the rate relief provided by the Fed in late 2024. Even though mortgage rates remain elevated, homeowners are taking advantage of home equity products to fund home improvements and consolidate debt. At the same time, positive trends in unemployment are supporting consumer confidence and encouraging borrowing.
Several risk factors, however, could negatively affect performance in the second half—among them the potential for new tariffs, which could trigger an inflationary spike or even stagflation. This scenario would place additional strain on household budgets and erode consumer confidence, a key driver of borrowing behavior. While the effects may not curb consumer spending immediately, Curinos warns they could be disruptive in the longer term.
Another factor that could dampen second half growth is the potential decline in rates of homeownership. Persistent inflation and any resulting rise in interest rates could further reduce housing affordability, shrinking the pool of eligible home equity borrowers.
That said, we believe our projected 6–10% growth in originations remains achievable under current market conditions. Still, we also emphasize the need for lenders to remain agile, preparing for strong growth early in the year and potential softening in the latter half.
Curinos Forecast Range for Home Equity Originations At-a-Glance
Forecast is based upon US National HELOC & HELoan originations
