Connect with the author: kinley.hicks@curinos.com
Home equity origination volume ended 2025 on a high trajectory, hitting double-digit growth after a couple of years of stagnant volume and high rates. Going into 2026, Curinos’ Home Equity Forecast model shows that volume growth will continue, although more gradually.
The most favorable scenario calls for annual growth of 4-7%, aided by a stable economy with consistent inflation and slow, gradual declines to the prime rate. Q2 is expected to see the highest quarter-over-quarter expansion, with Q3 and Q4 holding at those elevated levels (see chart).
Curinos Home Equity Originations Forecast Range At-a-Glance
Forecast is based upon US National HELOC & HELoan originations
Source: Curinos Model Science
Still, varying pressures on the economy could affect volume demand going into the latter half of the year. In a deflationary scenario in which the prime rate drops too swiftly, demand could shift quickly to refinance and cashout products and dramatically soften home equity volume. It might also prompt a decline in consumer spending, and thereby a lower likelihood of consumers taking new draws on existing lines. On the flip side, higher inflation could accelerate home equity volume through the end of the year, but at the expense of economic stability and overall affordability.
As 2026 unfolds, lending executives should remain vigilant regarding competitive pricing and teaser rate campaigns, which are expected to be as popular as they were for much of last year, if not more so. Benchmarking tools like Curinos’ LendersBenchmark Analyzer can prove invaluable in helping lenders navigate the ever-changing tides to the economy, consumer preferences and overall competitive positioning.
