Thus far this year the Fed has kept rates higher for longer than most had originally anticipated, and both the economy and the consumer have started to show some signs of stress. As a result, consumer deposit levels are less favorable than at this time last year. Curinos’ Consumer Deposit Analyzer benchmarks show that 2025 first half deposit growth is down -1.1% year to date on average, compared with the same seasonal six-month period in 2024, when deposit growth was up +1.1%.
The weaker performance has been driven by continued CD runoff, with banks that lowered CD rates aggressively this year seeing lower retention on maturing CDs. (In some instances banks have had to reverse course and increase flagship CD rates later to offset falling CD volumes.) Overall, CDs are down -3.5% in 2025, and because the average bank has over 20% of its consumer portfolio in CDs, that’s depressing overall deposit growth. Checking has also trended down for the first half of the year, at -1.3%. The only bright spot is savings, up +1.3%, partially because some maturing CDs have switched to savings. But savings thus far have not been able to capture all of the CD money looking to move after maturity, with some CD balances ultimately leaving the bank entirely.
The challenge to consumer deposit growth has shown up in wider dispersion in 2025 than at the same point in 2024. The gap between best and worst performers by growth is 7.5%, a gap two points wider than the 5.5% dispersion of H1 2024 (see chart).
Downshifted and dispersed. That’s the overall trend for consumer deposits thus far in 2025 as financial institutions seek to navigate the heightened uncertainty of today’s macroeconomic environment, with a wider range of results than in the past.
2024 Indexed Balance Growth | By Quartile Group of Traditional Banks
YTD 2025 Indexed Balance Growth | By Quartile Group of Traditional Banks
Source(s): Curinos Consumer Deposit Analyzer. | Note(s): Consumer balances only. Simple averages displayed. Quartiles are created dynamically.
