After a high volume of money in motion and churn in 2023, CD and savings promotional rates have begun declining in recent months. That’s because most banks are under increasing interest-expense pressure to cut costs, and the Fed has signaled that they’re finally on course to begin lowering the Fed Funds rate starting in September. Combined with the impact of a slowing U.S. economy and a slowdown in wage growth, this has translated to less disposable income for mass market and mass affluent consumers and, as a result, less consumer money in motion that can be captured by the retail banking industry.
According to the Curinos Deposit Analyzer, new savings balances at account opening fell to only $18K in the latest month, a 44% decrease from the $30K+ peaks of last year. New CD balances, while less affected, have also come down from 2023 highs and have settled to the mid-to-low $70Ks, from a peak of more than $85K at the start of 2023.
A smaller pool of available money in motion signals higher competition for deposits in the months ahead. It’s all the more reason for FIs to add to their toolkit data-based analytics and a playbook for a falling rate environment to navigate the uncharted waters ahead.
Average Account Balance at Opening |
MoM Account Count Growth | 3M Rolling Average
Both savings and CD average balances at account opening have fallen steadily since early 2023, driven by slowing money in motion.
Savings | Jan ‘23 – Jun ‘24
CDs | Jan ‘23 – Jun ‘24
Source: Curinos Deposit Analyzer | Note(s): Online banks excluded. Simple averages displayed.
